Welcome to The Study where I used to take an aspect of this week’s Just the Facts and delve in to it in a deep and meaningful way in order to bring further clarity to that aspect.
This time however, I’m doing a study without any prior facts which, considering the Study is about Brexit, is absolutely consistent with how the subject has been officially treated
Please remember, this article is Wilt’s fault. I have successfully avoided talking about it up until now due to the fact that if you take any position on the subject, you will deeply annoy a lot of people if you:
a: treat it as a joke
b: take it too seriously
c: are biased against Remain voters
d: are biased against the Leave voters
e: are biased against the Leave voters, no not those ones, the other ones
f: no, you are not biased against the Leave voters that are not either of the above two sorts but another sort that you’ve probably made up.
g: obviously don’t understand anything and believe everything you read in your loony spherically-shaped world.
So, lets deal with the question. ‘Why has the Brexit deal been so lambasted.’
Remainers are unhappy with the deal because it is not Remaining.
Remain voters were happy to remain as it was and didn’t want to leave in the first place. They believed that of course the EU was not perfect but they would prefer to be in it and hope to steer it democratically towards what you thought was better rather than be outside throwing stones at it and calling it a cissy.
Unfortunately, people who were already taking advantage of the EU right to settle, live, learn and love in any of the other EU countries were not allowed to vote because they might have been slightly biased towards staying.
So any kind of deal which is a progression towards leaving the EU is not popular with ‘the 48%’ that voted ‘Remain’. Plus, probably the 1.25 million odd people already living elsewhere in the EU but no one has asked them that either.
Most Leave voters are not happy with the deal as it is not the Leave of whichever sort of Leave they personally would have really liked. This is mainly because the referendum only asked ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ as their binary choice and left out some detail of the Leave part that they hadn’t quite decided on yet but were happy to let lots of Leave factions make up as they campaigned.
So although the 52% who voted to Leave the EU, because that was the only option that didn’t include Remaining, the type of Leaving they each wanted varied and has never settled on a definitive type since.
But everyone on the Leave side knows what ‘The British People Voted For’. That is, the 52% of British people who voted for Leave in the referendum but not the students, who had a heavy night on the beer last night and people who are so unconcerned with politics they were watching The Kardashians on TV for the whole campaign. But they, along with the 48%, don’t count as ‘The British People’ when you’re talking about what they want, which, in the case of students or TV watchers, is generally either ‘More Kardashians’ or ‘More Beer’.
What Leavers know for certain is that everyone who voted Leave was actually thinking of the same type of Leave that, coincidentally, chimes with the sort of Leave they were thinking of as well, not any other sort
So we now have a deal, painfully negotiated over two years by many now resigned negotiators and of course giving nothing away/giving everything away/too expensive/too cheap/too many rules/too many backstops/too many things that might look like a border/not enough borders for long enough/too many expensive flights across to EU airports with no idea what you went for but you could at least gave the same speech you gave at home but in a nicer city.
And no one likes it. Because everyone wanted it to be a bit different than it was. In fact, the PM knew no one liked it, delayed Parliament voting on it until they perhaps had forgotten they didn’t like it and then found that everyone did remember, still didn’t like it and voted massively against it.
Now, it’s not that important for your understanding that you know exactly what the Deal is or says. All you need to know is that it is not the Deal that anyone at all wants but is the only one there is.
So there is The Deal. Then there is No Deal.
No Deal is exactly that. Britain just stops being part of the EU overnight without any sort of arrangements, although there apparently could be a ‘managed No Deal’, which is basically that we disagree with everything that is in the Deal but somehow manage to arrange some things to work together when we haven’t gone for a Deal. Theoretically.
Despite Government saying it’s being prepared for No Deal, outwardly, by staging a lorry convoy, a 10,000:1 scale mock up traffic jam of goods trucks and the uncovering of a ferry company in possession of a contract but no ferries or no ferrying experience and that had it’s Terms and Conditions copy and pasted from a fast food company on it’s website, nothing else concrete has been seen. Because no one in Government really believed they’d have to do it (or still will) and the Article 50 notice was triggered without making any plans what to do before it was triggered.
So, we are here now. Not many MP’s and no Remainers want a ‘No Deal’ exit from the EU and won’t even consider it before pointlessly talking about what other sort of Deal there could theoretically be when the EU have said, for around half a year ‘Um.. that’s THE deal, stop messing about.’
So without any further Parliamentary shenanigans – and as at time of writing 18/01/19 – legally, ‘No Deal’ is what will happen on March 29th and the UK, even the bits of it that massively voted not to Leave at all, will be a Third country and non-EU member as far as the EU is concerned.
Everything that most UK citizens currently take for granted and never realised that ‘No Deal’ would immediately affect, will immediately be affected. From that day, GB will apparently trade with the EU on WTO terms (allegedly… some detail to be fleshed out on that. Unfortunately we never successfully got to the bit where we actually negotiated trade agreements with them).
Apparently some in Government (as opposed to Parliament) want a ‘No Deal’ exit (there is a core of hardliners for whom this is all ideal). So some of the higher echelons of Government, populated by people who not intelligent enough to read a timetable to catch the right bus to get to work so have a chauffeured car, will not revoke the legal Article 50 notice, even temporarily, which ties everyone to exiting on that date and may/may not cause hardship and uncertainty for everyone for a few/10/50/forever years but, according to the European Court of Justice can be revoked at any time to return to our pre-referendum status , just by writing a letter.
So, I hope that gets you up to speed Wilt.
Basically, we’re all bollocksed/will hardly notice a thing/will come together in unity/completely fecked now.
My opinion? I think for most Leavers, their vote came down to fear.
Fear of terrorism (statistically insignificant in terms of deaths in this country) by those ‘brown’ types.
Fear of not being in the majority culture in their ‘own’ country (ie, white, or at least ‘British’, and again, a fiction based on the stories magnified by some small but loud sections of racist media and in any case, still fellow humans so why would that be frightening?).
The easy attribution to anything other that could be the cause of their poverty and hardship.
Some way – and perhaps, they felt, the only way – of protesting about their situation.
And it was convenient for the EU to be ‘it’ at the time.
And the Government of the day was happy to let that perception and presentation grow, because it stopped people noticing and realising that actually, it was the Government who were the ones making the incompetent decisions that was causing all the fear and poverty but they were quietly getting richer and were therefore alright Jack while they did it.
I don’t think it was ‘decided by the people’. I think it was engineered, leveraging these fears and discontent to further enable those with an interest in, let’s say for example, not having to spend money on making things fit EU rules by being the one’s in control of the rules and without the EU ‘interfering’ any more.
As ever, if anyone takes a stance or promotes an opinion, there will be holes picked, facts disagreed with and polarised positions will be shouted.
I won’t notice, I’ll be in the garden, converting all the flower beds and lawns into productive vegetable plots.